Monday, June 28, 2010

McKinsey's $ 2 BILLION medical tourism revenue projections for India by 2012 - time to rethink?

When I heard that a friend of mine is quitting her full time job to join the medical tourism bandwagon, I thought it is about time to clear the air on some of the rosy projections out there. Here is a recent report that projects 30% growth in medical tourism revenue for Fortis (I do not have data to question this..)

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/Fortis-Healthcare-eyes-30-pc-jump-in-medical-tourist-arrivals/articleshow/6098907.cms

However the devil is in the details. Though the 30% number looks good in percentage terms, the absolute number of patients in 2009(4000 patients), is what one may need to look at more closely.. The revenue figures for Fortis Hospitals (formerly Wockhardt Hospitals ) for 2009 was Rs 93 crores ( about $ 25 million) making the revenue from medical tourism segment for Fortis Hospitals to 9 crores (about $ 2.5 million).

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/fortis-net-profit-zooms-five-fold/396401/

If we are seeing $ 2.5 million for Fortis Hospitals, the total including other major hospital groups could add up to a reasonable of $ 15 million for 2009. A 30% growth would put the 2010 revenue at about $ 20 million.

So I was wondering if it is high time we revised Mc Kinsey’s medical tourism revenue estimates for India downward from $ 2 BILLION in 2012. Would $ 20 -30 million million be more realistic?

For those who are chasing the hype cycle it makes sense to take a realistic look at the numbers based on the facts available. Medical tourism in India will continue to grow, however the pace of growth is debatable.

19 comments:

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For angles from around 5.7 up to 90 degrees, sines are identified by comparing the S scale with C. The S scale has a second set of angles (sometimes in a various color), which run in the opposite direction, and are employed for cosines. Tangents are identified by comparing the T scale with C or, for angles greater than 45 degrees, CI. Typical forms for example ksinx could be read directly from x on the S scale to the result on the D scale, when the C-scale index is set at k. For angles below five.7 degrees, sines, tangents, and radians are approximately equal, and are identified around the ST or SRT (sines, radians, and tangents) scale, or merely divided by 57.3 degrees/radian Inverse trigonometric capabilities are found by reversing the method.
Many slide rules have S, T, and ST scales marked with degrees and minutes. So-called decitrig models use decimal fractions of levels instead.

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Samual said...

Our comprehensive report also provides a deep insight into the Indian medical tourism market and evaluates the past, present and future scenario of the medical tourism market as number of India hospitals are increasing day by day.

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